Selections 17-23 November

November 17, 2014
A mixed first five days for the blog, with a couple of each ways hitting the frame, but the more confident selections being disappointing! Rory Sabbatini mixed two flawless rounds of 66 with two dreadful efforts of 73 and 76, while among the horses, Elusive Laurence's short head defeat at 12/1 was the closest we came to a winner.
Do remember this is an amateur blog please when deciding whether to follow me in on any selections, and thanks for your patience as we look for that elusive winner!

17th November.

A poor day's racing but one horse does have appeal. FIRST EXPERIENCE (Wolve 4.40) is 2 from 2 at the track and the return here can bring a return to winning ways. 4th to Katiba in a hot race for the grade at Kempton (the third, Maggie Pink, has won since) this looks an easier opportunity. In the absence of Dr Red Eye, the price has contracted but there's still enough juice in the 9/4 in places and on betfair to make this the first bet of the new week.

18th November

The dogs are barking Willie Mullins's French import VROUM VROUM MAG (Wexford 2.45). Smart form in the provinces and unless my ears are very much mistaken I'll keep it simple and this horse should land the 10/11 generally today. Down Ace and Emily Gray set solid standards, so we should know this afternoon if we have something a bit special on our hands. I suspect we have!

19th November

Today's selection is HENRIK STENSON e/w (8/1 Several) for the DP World Tour golf 5 places 1/4 odds in a field of just 60, ;less than half the regular tour size). 7th two years ago, the Swede won this title last year, and comes here off a 3rd placing last week, and being 2nd highest in the World rankings of those playing, his credentials look rock solid.
McIlroy is favourite but comes here off a six week break and that might just just leave him short of sharpness with the short stick. i think Stenson has a fine chance of defending the title, on this 'bombers' course.

Anyone looking for a more exciting bet might look at another Swede, Jonas Blixt. Three top 25s in the last three weeks,  he will be suited by this track and the 70/1 with Paddy Power might be worth a small e/w play. He's perhaps a more realistic but undeniably tempting 6/1 for a top 10 with Hills.
However the blog's ONE A DAY offering is Stenson e/w at 8/1/

20th November

Off to Meydan today, for a horse I've liked for a long time. HENRY CLAY (3.20 Meydan, 7/2 Corals), previously something of a Jebel Ali bully, showed he could take well to the dirt surface a fortnight ago when making the running until lack of a recent outing showed late on, finishing 2nd to Storm Belt, but he can score today with that outing under his belt. Interestingly Pat Dobbs takes over this time, and he is 3 out of 4 on the Doug Watson charge. Stall five seems a good draw and this is a significant drop in Class taking on horses rated mainly in the 70s and 80s, having been up against several 90+ rateds (Pisco Sour well behind) fourteen days ago..

Respect Me took advantage of a dropped mark at Al Ain when scoring easily, however up 10lbs and into a much stiffer race might be vulnerable, but still looks the danger.

21st November

Another 2nd yesterday, intensely frustrating. Today's saw several candidates vying for the Nap spot. InsolenceofOfffice has an excellent chance of following up at Wolverhampton, but the price is short enough in the context of the race.

At Dundalk, a host of horses with good chances, some at decent prices too. Sassy but Classy should go well in the opener, on what looks a decent mark of 75, having crossed swords with much higher rated animals last time and far from disgraced when fourth of fifth, beaten about two lengths by the well regarded Folk Law. 5/1 represents superb e/w value.
 
Whailley (4/1) bids for a treble and should go close, though the drop to 6f and a sharp rise in the weights won't make it easy.
Chicago Girl and Enzani have excellent opportunities in their respective maidens, and two at prices elsewhere on the card are Manorov (4/1), and Eretera who was travelling superbly well when clipping heels on its last run at a huge price, though an ineperienced pilot tempers enthusiasm to a minimum e/w stake tonight but at 20/1 the jockey is in the price.

Another good bet is course regular Corker Hill, who followed up a fine course win by running second last week to a really well handicapped one from the ever shrewd Martin yard. Despite being up another 2lbs for that, the rest look in the grip of the handicapper. Tony Carroll has a raider here from his Worcester base, and that is worth a market check, but Corker Hill still looks an improver and relatively unexposed. Should score here.

But the aforementioned ENZANI (13/8 Bet365) is a Maximum stake bet for me personally in the finale. Finished about 5 lengths in front of Kadayma on debut, with several useful horses (including dual purpose Galway winner Lucky Pat) behind. On the same weight terms, I don't see Kadayma (who had had a previous run) reversing the form. Intense Debate looks pretty limited and the others, such as Chakisto even with Joseph O'Brien's assistance, and who has been struggling in maiden hurdles, just don't look good enough to me. 

22 November.

The One-A-Day blog's first Maximum floored the favourite last night in good style at Dundalk. Hopefully a few readers took advantage.

A really tricky day with testing going likely to bring a few shocks, so it's back to the all-weather. Katkeau (about 7/1) did come close in the Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, while it's eyecatching that Boom the Groom (Wolver 6.15, an e/w bet for me at 6/1) was entered at the 5 day stage at Dundalk, where the stable had a double last night.

The vote though, goes to PERCEUS (Wolverhampton 7.15) with a mark of 78, in this maiden, which doesn't set an insurmountable standard - however this looks particularly weak and the Marcus Tregoning charge should prove good enough on the back of an improved effort at Nottingham last time.
Trip looks fine and a decent low draw. John Gosden's Assagher didn't show a lot on debut at Kempton, but with normal progress can chase the Nap home. Perseus should take the beating.
EDIT: 11.15am. Lot of money for the Gosden horse, and Bet365 now offering 7/2 Perceus which I think is really excellent value

At the time of typing, Henrik Stenson has a two shot halfway lead, and the blog 8/1 is looking promising, however that can disappear in a single hole, and a lot of golf to be played yet. Fingers crossed!
 

One-Bet-A-Day Selections 13-16 November

November 13, 2014
PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LATEST SELECTION EACH DAY.

Nice to get the revamped blog underway yesterday with 12/1 e/w selection Elusive Laurence running a huge race, and going down a short head in a wild finish. Obviously the 'W' would have been nicer, but it wasn't quite to be.
Hopefully a few of you though enjoyed the race and made a few bob!

As said in the intro yesterday, the day's best bet won't always be horse racing and today's is the first venture elsewhere. Looked at the racing long and ...
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One-Bet-A-Day. Welcome!

November 12, 2014
Hi

Welcome to my newly revised blog. On an experimental basis until the Christmas holidays, I will be putting up one Sports Bet a day.

A few of your possible questions answered first.

1) I've been punting since the 1980s, so I'd like to think I've built up a bit of experience meantime, and don't just play in horse racing, but other sports including golf, rugby union and football.

2) Most of my bets will be horse racing, but not exclusively. That's particularly the case when we only have fairly a...
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Champion Bumper Preview. Vic... Vic... Victory

March 11, 2014
Champion Bumper Preview. Vic... Vic.. Victory.
WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (A STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE) GRADE 1(CLASS 1) (4-6yo) Winner £34,170 23 runners 2m110y Good To Soft RUK. 5.15 Wednesday.

Outside of the Champion hurdle, this is my favourite race of the week. Appreciate not many will agree, but Bumpers are niche races, followed by relatively few, but a small cult seems to form around those who enjoy this race. 

And my opinion is that this is the best crop in many years. My e...
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meydan 1st March. personal notes and only provisional

February 25, 2014
Due to two Carnival cards this week, notes added here usual site though please visit www.sportsnut.yolasite.com where these comments will be added

2.45

No Bet.

Summary:
Likely favourite here, Plantagenet got the run of the race when a fine third to Elleval last week, the horse loves a fast pace when the front runners come back. Not been as good in small fields historically, so it might pay to consider Mickdaam, didn't show much behind Vercingetorix last time but is a former listed winner here, o...
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Opinion: A reply, and why Scots deserve to be in Six Nations.

February 10, 2014
For anyone who hasn't seen it, The Telegraph's Sports correspondent, Paul Hayward (@_paulhayward on twitter) has written an article suggesting that Scotland should be told to 'Shape up or Ship out' of the Six Nations. The premise is that they are no longer fit to be part of the tournament, in that they do not take it seriously and their stats are dreadful in the first two games of this year's tournament, following years of disappointing results.

Let's get this straight from the start. This ard...
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Curley related Gamble. Opinion

January 23, 2014
Yesterday, as I suspect most/all readers will know by now, ex-Barney Curley related horses, all returning from long absences, landed an estimated 2 million pound gamble, (undoubtedly the blow softened by exchange trading), winning four races at various all weather meetings in the UK.

Nothing a punter loves more than to stick one on the bookies, and plenty picked up a nice payout. Even the bookies sounded almost relieved that the 'Sting' was not greater. Twitter was buzzing with triumphal comme...
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Lions Tour latest news views

June 11, 2013
A

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1,000 Guineas preview. What's in A Name?

May 3, 2013
Fifteen go to post for the Fillies Classic on Sunday, the Qipco 1,000 Guineas over the straight mile. After such a dramatic few weeks in flat racing's HQ for all the wrong reasons, with the Zarooni and Butler yards guilty of steroid use, Newmarket will be glad to get back to doing what it does best, and that's racing itself of course.

The forecast is set fair and the ground likely to be around good to firm (watered to maintain). With the stalls placed in the centre it should provide a fairly l...
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Opinion. Steroids, Zarooni and wider implications.

April 25, 2013
To the clear outrage of his boss, Sheikh Mohammed, Mahmood Al Zarooni has in effect accepted that he has broken the rules of British racing by permitting the giving of anabolic steroids to horses in his care in Newmarket.
The biggest 'casualty' in terms of racing is Certify, a leading fancy which will now miss the Guineas next month, but this story has far deeper implications for the sport I love.

The nominal punishment is an apparently brutal 8 year ban but in one sense it matters little as Za...
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