A near miss last week as the blog Nap, Cool Cowboy, available at 6/1 early on, was run down by a reformed (and first time gelded) Maftool in the dying strides. Ertijaal loathed the dirt, another talented horse that you hope isn't soured from the game like so many before him, for an outing on the gravel. 


It's one of those days..... Generally as a punter the biggest edge we have is that bookies have to price every race, every day, and we can cherry pick, not only which favourites to back/oppose, but by using a site like oddschecker, the best prices. We don't have to bet in every race.
unfortunately, such is this card, that nobody will turn a hair if four or five (maybe all seven!) favourites win today. A whole bunch of apparent 'good things', and the bookies know it.

to back one or more of them at the prices on offer you need to be really confident. To oppose, you have to have really viable, sound alternatives that in your own judgement you think really can win (asd opposed to just place).

So it's a rare day for me today, when multiples, not normally bets I like, seems the likeliest way to a probably small profit.

Anyway, on with the card.

CALIFORNIA CHROME is the headline horse for the card, has to give weight to a bunch of decent but hardly fearsome handicappers at a trip arguably on the short side. Eddie Greatrex is a slightly strange booking for Good Contact, perhaps one of few around who could do the weight who was available, and the horse is probably the most realistic alternative, but in truth something of a shock if the likely favourite doesn't win. 

Unless MARKING really is a headcase, I can't envisage anything here making a race of it with one of America's top sprinters, who of course slipped up leaving the stalls when a confident Nap for the blog a couple of weeks ago. If he overheats at the start, might become a very backable price, but should be able to give these 10 lengths from the boxes and still lap them.

THINK AHEAD is still very progressive and probably well clear of a lenient looking mark, after a decisive win last time, and looks a certain player for Super Saturday and/or World Cup night. SlumdogMillionaire will pop up at a price one day, but doubtful he will have the legs of Think Ahead here. Most of the rest look exposed, though Farraaj did win the Magnet ( John Smith's) Cup at York under a big weight off this mark.

JAMESIE is a grand type, and Pat Smullen makes the trip this week, having missed last Thursday for a fancied Halford runner. A mark of 100 gives the still talented eight year old every chance of another success.

Fascinating race between Safety Check, who looks imperious here, and HARRY'S SON, second to him last time off a long absence. The way the latter ran on, I'll take a chance that placings can be reversed, but Not with much confidence! A reverse forecast might be the smarter approach.

ONE MAN BAND should make all in the opener, and similar tactics from ACTIVE SPIRIT in the second would not surprise..


5.20 Think Ahead 2/1 NAP. Won't be everyone's cup of tea at that price, but 2/1 Bet365  is much bigger than i expected and at the price is a Nap for me.

It;s a real 'shorties' week, only Jamesie in the last an e/w price, and any multiples combining some of the following should yield a profitable return.....

.......IF anyone wants a bit of fun, a jackpot or Placepot few lines (assuming all races, or first 6, included) of 1and2,2,1,2and4,4,1and3,10 night be not too far away.
One Man Band/Nolohay; Active Spirit; Marking; Harry's Son/Safety Check; Think Ahead; California Chrome/Good Contact; Jamesie 

One for the Road: no weekend fixture at Jebel or here this week, so no additional bet.

As always thanks for your time. Never good to be over-confident but think we have a decent chance of success this week!