Thought it might be mildly amusing to blog as I go through the selection process for my first week betting 'seriously' on golf (as per my post below).

It's Saturday morning and am greeted not just by the sight of rain on opening the curtains, but slate, leaden skies. Summer, bah! But this does have an upside, especially this morning. No 'enforced' shopping trip, and after a swift breakfast, lo and behold the internet is free, and for the morning.
Scenes! This means I can get a head's start on selections for the next week, and start to look at possible bets.

A string of mainly minor events, ranging from Kazahkstan, to the Vaal in South Africa, and across to Canada. The PGA tour takes the week off after a Monday finish at the Deutsche Bank, so it will be those types of events that take my focus. Eight events in total.

People ask me how do i possibly try and find a winner in a field of over 100? 

Iamgine for a moment an eight race card, that is on once a week, but run atr a different course each time, but pretty much the same horses every week. Usually without being disrespectful, the majority can't win. You get to know the likelier contenders, and using criteria i discussed in my previous post, you can improve your chances of finding when they are likeliest to do particularly well.

But you can't do a tissue for that many players?

Exactly right. I don't. When you've been betting for thirty odd years, that changes.

Instead, rather than doing a tissue for all the runnersYou get a fair price in mind for the players who make the shortlist, and need to do that by Sunday night. When markets open on Monday, i know that people smarter than me will have their eyes on a possibly similar group of players, and being a greedy ****** I want the best possible prices. I know how these players are usually priced, and I also know that bookies, particularly in minor events, overrate recency bias (meaning, literally, one or two weeks). Within three weeks of winning the Open, Zach Johnson was out to 50/1 again.

On Mondays I'll also have a look round a few of the online tipsters, see if their thinking is along the lines I'm looking, or whether they are totally different.

This morning, as most weeks,  begin at the bottom. I can put a line through the events in Ecuador and Canada, where the highest ranked players have World ranking scores in the low teens, which puts them probably outside the World's top 500. That's selling class in racing terms, and it would need to be something exceptional for me to indulge. There's nothing there.this morning.

Next up is the Sunshine tour event in South Africa. The standard here is a little higher, though there's no strength in depth. A three round competition in the Vaal. Not much here and those bookies who do deign to price this event will probably have Jacques Blaauw and Keith Horne near the top. Both are playing in Russia this week I note on my slip, and going quite well.

They're both serious contenders given the weakness of the field, but maybe Jean Hugo will be interesting, with a 3rd and a 9th in two tries here, and in form now, a 1st, 8th and 2nd in the last three weeks. He too will be short.and that run came on the back of two missed cuts. That's the 'joy' of betting in low key events!

Is there a decent outsider? In this case there's almost nothing to excite. Andrew Curlewis popped up with a win here two years ago, but he's a journeyman in truth, though recent 2nd and 7th should get in the mix, but as for the rest....

All the players I mentioned will have Sunday or Monday flights from Russia where they are playing now, to South Africa for a Wednesday start, apart from Hugo. Hardly ideal.

One other player not in Russia is Dean Burmester, but after a good run, he's gone cold in recent weeks.

Will i have a bet? Prices will determine, but I'm not too fussed if i don't. Any of the originally mentioned three lead contenders in double figures though would catch my attention as a 'possible'. Let's see how the guys in Russia fare over the weekend..
Jean Hugo is the most interesting I think.

Three tournaments 'done' and its not Saturday lunchtime. Winning! Just time for a quick check-in on this week's bets though. Damain McGrane has made a mess of things in Russia, but David Horsey, a winner two weeks ago, and defending champion here, is up to third half way through round three. Marksaeng is not getting competitive in Japan, but Rebecca Artis after two 'ordinary' rounds has come to life with five birdies in seven holes, midway though round three and is into the top ten, but still with work to do..

Stenson is tied 2nd in the US, eight birdies but four bogeys on his first round card, but Webb Simpson is in danger of missing the cut. Finally Peter Fowler has made a solid start in the British Masters Seniors event. 

Mixed bag!

Saturday afternoon is spent watching the racing, Saturdays tend to be a betting mare, but today's double lands, with Moral High Ground and Jamesie both winning. The latter dropping from Group One into a stakes race, but priced up early at 5/2. The mood is decent and I decide to do one more tournament today.

The Ladies event, the Evian, is a decent affair with the majority of top players on show. In Bee Park will head and make the market, as she does most weeks, and woon here in 2012, but the balance of her course form is uninspiring. Plenty options. Suzanne Pettersen seems to play well week in week out and has a good record here, including a 2013 win. The downside is that she doesn't Win enough and I'd imagine she'll be around 25/1.

Better value might lie with two others.Difficult to believe the Taiwanese girl, Ya Ni Tseng, is still in her 20s. Shot to world number one several years ago, but then slumped to the edge of the top 100, but she's been hanging around leaderboards for a few weeks now and came right back to form with a 2nd last week. I'm hoping that hasn't killed her price. 
But the first definite bet of the week is the Korean, Ha Na Jang.In her last ten events, she has a win, three seconds and a fourth, and on her first try in this event was 3rd. Her countrywomen, the US Open winner IG Chun and HJ Kim are likely to be a bit shorter in the market.
I would have Jang around 25/1, but I am confident in this field she'll be bigger. The Korean 'school' is a tremendous standard, and produces a conveyer belt of incredible talent.

Wondering if we will get markets on Monday, but no surprise if it's Tuesday. There's usually a decent time to get on, as the markets don't attract heavy trading.

Meantime, I left a pot of soup on the ring, completely forgetting about it. Kitchen carnage! Back with more in a bit, next up, the tournament, which looks a lively betting event. :)

Apologies for typos, my computer screen has an attack of the flickers.....